Tag Archives: back-testing

Three Planetary Stations In A Single Week

It’s a remarkable week we’re having, with three planetary stations in just four trading days.

The Saturn Impact

On Monday, May 11, Saturn began its retrograde motion at 01°57′ Aquarius.

It triggered the transiting Cupido/Admetos midpoint, prompting confrontations between opposing factions within communities, resulting in dire straights for the whole group.

Saturn also activated the Zeus/Poseidon midpoint to open up situations that are like to focus hard evidence and formal proof, revealing specific test results and bringing in expert testimony.

Think congressional hearings.

Venus Offers Creative Opportunities

Earlier today, on Wednesday, May 13, Venus went retrograde, too.

This Venus retrograde station at 21°50′ Gemini triggers the Sun/Zeus midpoint, promoting creative devotion in pursuing major goals.

In a crisis-driven atmosphere marked with political tension and public confrontations, a little creativity could go a long way!

Venus brings one of three planetary stations.
Venus brings us just one of the three planetary stations this week.

And, as our back-testing chart shows, Venus retrograde stations can also have a mildly bullish impact on stock prices, at least for a few weeks.

And Jupiter will get into the act tomorrow.

On Thursday Jupiter will go retrograde at 27°14′ Capricorn.

As it does so, it will activate Sun/Aries and Moon/Aries alignments. This could bring a massive burst of positive energy to promote a happy populace.

Even if that positive energy is based on misinformation.

So What About The Markets?

But what does it actually mean to have three planetary stations in a single week like this?

That’s what I talked with Larry Pesavento about yesterday.

We  had a great chance to chat during his Trade What You See show on TFNN. We had originally scheduled the session during our last conversation on May 1, when I shared a forecast for the S&P.

Talking With Larry Pesavento About The Three Planetary Stations This Week

Thanks to the universal disruption caused by the global coronavirus pandemic, the bandwidth for our conversation got a little sketchy at times.

But even though we had some problems with sound and internet connections along the way, the point still came across:

A week with three planetary stations is definitely a big deal.

Here’s the replay video. See what you think!

Eclipse Effects Still Coming On Strong

Eclipse effects can be amazingly long-lasting.

The last of the summer eclipses was a week ago.

It was the partial solar eclipse on August 11.

Eclipse Effects Still To Come

It may seem like that was the end of the story.

But the biggest impacts of the entire eclipse series – two solar eclipses and one lunar eclipse – are still to come!

Whether you’re setting up trading strategies or just trying to keep up with world events, there’s a lot to prepare for.

That’s why we put together not one, but two special eclipse reports to review all the dimensions of these extraordinary events.

Despots & Decisions

Eclipse Effects - Despots Decisions

In the first one, Despots & Decisions, we drilled into the impact of the partial solar eclipse in July. We took a special look at the eclipse effects on leaders around the globe.

Each of these key people is experiencing the eclipse effects in some very different ways!

I guess we could say it’s just a case of Different Strokes for Different Folks – but when some of these folks have nuclear weapons and huge standing armies, it’s not quite so simple!

Irresistible Force

Eclipse Effects - Irresistible Force

In our second report, Irresistible Force, the focus was mainly on the impact of the partial solar eclipse in August.

What was noteworthy about that most recent solar eclipse was the Saros series it was a part of.

Prior to this August event, there had only been five previous eclipses in that series – and all of them took place at at times when we have stock market data for back-testing!

That’s a remarkable event as far as studying eclipse effects goes. So we took a deep-dive look into all those previous solar eclipses.

Double Eclipse Bundle

As I was saying, there’s a lot to prepare for during the coming months. And there are a lot of resources in these two in-depth reports.

Eclipse Effects - Double Eclipse Bundle

That’s why I’m glad my publisher has combined the e-book versions of these two publications into a special offer of a Double Eclipse Bundle.

You can get both e-books as an instant download – and save about 60 percent off the regular price of buying them individually.

It’s something you’ll definitely want to get your hands on. These are vital tools for getting the full advantage out of the eclipse effects that are still ahead!

For more information on the Double Eclipse Bundle, go to: http://bit.ly/18SE2eb

Be sure to take a look to get the full advantage of the opportunities ahead.

Dow Target A Near Miss

Okay. We’ve just finished the first quarter of the trading year, and our Dow target wasn’t hit precisely.

But we came pretty darn close!

What Dow Target?

What does all this mean? What target am I talking about, anyway?

It all started with a request I got in late November from Timer Digest newsletter.

They regularly track market timers, including the trading signals that we publish in FinancialCyclesWeekly.

And, as I noted in a blog post a few months ago, they wanted an overall forecast for 2017.

Their request was for a specific Dow target for the end of March, for the end of June, and for the end of the year on December 31st..

So here’s what I came up with.

I was looking for a bullish quarter for stocks.

That certainly has proven to be the case.

But I was trying to figure this out in late November, remember.

At that time (November 28) the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 19097.90.

So I did some back-testing.

I looked at cycles of the true lunar node.

I assessed upcoming astrological events.

I took a particular look at upcoming solar eclipse patterns.

Not Just Trump

While many of colleagues and fellow forecasters focused on the election of Donald Trump, I didn’t give it much attention.

Trump's New York Battle
Donald Trump’s billionaire status translated into Wall Street enthusiasm after the election.

At that time, of course, a Trump Rally was already underway.

The Dow had already climbed nearly 5 percent since the presidential election. And it was a pretty good bet it would continue into the new year.

At least until after the presidential inauguration on January 20.

But again, I wasn’t giving that factor much attention as I calculated my Dow target.

I was looking at the astrology instead – that’s mainly what astro-traders do!

So What Exactly Was The Dow Target?

As I’ve reported here before, my target for the end of March, 2017 was 20605.00.

Dow Target March 2017
Our Dow Target for the end of March 2017 was very close to the actual closing price on March 31.

And, as I noted shortly after the forecast made it into print in Timer Digest, I found myself “wondering if perhaps I didn’t stick my neck out a little too far with this forecast.”

As it turned out, though, my Dow target was a little too conservative.

My projection was for 20606.00. The Dow finished up at the end of March at 20663.22.

My Dow target was off by 0.28%.

We’ll see how things turn out for the rest of the year.

Market Rally Midpoint Action

When I commented yesterday on the big market rally, I left something out.

I was focused on the impact of this week’s Uranus/Pluto waxing square on Janet Yellen’s natal horoscope.

I neglected to mention an important transiting dynamic.

A Market Rally Alignment

The Sun was square the Juipiter/Apollon midpoint as the market rally was in full swing.

My friend Bill Sarubbi (known to many as Bill Meridian, author of The Predictive Power of Eclipse Paths and other essential works on astro-trading) pointed out the omission.

I’m truly grateful that he brought it to my attention.

Some years ago it was Bill, along with Charles Emerson and Gary Christen, who encouraged me to look at the Transneptunian factors like Apollon in my astrological work.

Arch Crawford also helped push me in that direction.

Even though I resisted the notion of “hypothetical planets” at first, I finally gave it a look.

I’ve been hooked ever since.

The Transneptunians can indeed add important information to our astrological interpretations. And because they are slow-moving, even generational in their influence, they’re especially useful in mundane astrology and macro-economic considerations.

Apollon is the Transneptunian factor that’s connected with global expansion, the growth of science and technology, commercial activity, and the spreading of influence far and wide.

In combination with Jupiter, it’s a classic indicator of big money. That can be expressed in individual wealth or in the capitalization of a major corporation.

It can also mean a market rally.

What Alfred Witte Said

The comments of Alfred Witte, who literally wrote the book on Transneptunian influences, certainly support the idea of a market rally getting triggered by Jupiter/Apollon action.

(You can read Witte’s remarks on the subject in this article on “What Witte Said About The Sun At The Jupiter/Apollon Midpoint”).

What’s even more interesting, though, is what we can learn by back-testing the effects of eighth-harmonic solar alignments with the Jupiter/Apollon midpoint.

This chart shows the tendency toward a market rally after this alignment. It’s based on the events that took place over the last 30 years. But it doesn’t include the Sun’s square to the Jupiter/Apollon midpoint yesterday.

SunJupiterApollon Market Rally
When the Sun hits the Jupiter/Apollon midpoint, it can trigger a market rally in large-cap equities.

As you can see, the idea of the Sun in contact with the transiting Jupiter/Apollon midpoint being connected with a market rally doesn’t look too bad.

A Caution About Predicting A Market Rally

Even so, it’s important not to jump to conclusions. Although the impact of the Sun’s square to the Jupiter/Apollon midpoint was certainly evident in the market rally this week, it doesn’t happen all the time.

In fact, a market rally fails to materialize most of the time.

Remember that we get eight eighth-harmonic alignments of the Sun to the Jupiter/Apollon midpoint each year.

While they do in fact bring stock prices up on average, we don’t see a market rally of historical proportions each time they occur.

Note as well that the average pop in the S&P after a solar contact with the Jupiter/Apollon midpoint tends to be about one-third of one percent.

That’s nothing like the market rally we’ve seen in the past couple of days!

 

Astro-Trading The Neptune Station

Neptune made its annual Direct Station during the weekend, and right now it looks like the response in the equities market is exactly what we were expecting to see.

S&P at Neptune Direct
Back-testing the price action for the S&P 500 at previous Neptune Direct Stations helps us formulate an astro-trading strategy. The S&P typically starts topping out of an uptrend about three days before the station, and then begins a strong uptrend a couple of days after the Neptune event.

We did extensive back-testing of the impact that previous Neptune Direct Stations have had on the price action in the S&P 500 during past years, to see what kind of astro-trading assumptions might be reasonable this time around.

As the chart showing the research results indicates, it’s typical for the market to be in a sustained uptrend during the period leading up to the station, with some topping action and price consolidation getting underway a few days prior to the exact date that Neptune changes course. Then a fresh uptrend gets underway just two calendar days after the Direct Station.

 

Price Action in the SPX from November 4 - 18, 2014
Price Action in the SPX from November 4 – 18, 2014

Here’s the price action in the SPX during the current Direct Station period. As you can see, prices were indeed in a sustained uptrend for well over a week prior to the event, and then topped out on Thursday, November 13. (Note that this was actually three calendar days prior to the station, which took place on Sunday, November 16.

In this case the overall bullishness in the market was more than enough to prevent a major market pull-back, but we did in fact see some trading congestion on Friday and Monday, just before and after the Neptune Station.

The markets are still open today, but from the looks of things so far we seem to be getting exactly the kind of action that our astro-trading research has led us to expect – the SPX has gotten off to an aggressively bullish start, exactly two days after the date of the Neptune Direct Station!

A Mercury Direct Stress Test & Stock Market Trading

This has been an eventful day, to say the least.

Mercury returned to direct motion this morning, after being retrograde since June 7.

That seemed to be good news for stock market trading, with all the major market indices breaking through previous resistance today to move to higher levels for the remainder of the trading day

Actually, Mercury resumption of direct motiont was a welcome transition at a lot of levels, especially since the last few days had seen more than their share of chaos, miscommunications, and general weirdness.

A couple of examples–

Yesterday, with Mercury in its final day of retrograde motion, I released my new e-book (what was I thinking when I picked THAT time!?!) on How To Time The Next Market Trading Top.

HTtimeTradingTopCover

This is an important new report which is the result of some months of research, back-testing, writing, and editing, so I was really glad to be able to make it available through my publishing company at Harmonic Research Associates.

But Mercury was retrograde so things got screwed up. A lot of people who ordered the instant download of this new publication got a confirmation email, but instead of getting this new report they gold a year-old monograph instead!

Not exactly what I had planned on, and it took us almost 24 hours to get everything straightened out, and to deliver copies of the real item to the people who had requested it.

And then, on a more personal level, there’s the repair work that just getting underway on the building that houses our penthouse condo overlooking the Manatee River here in Florida.

The condo association has contracted to have the exterior stucco repaired and the building repainted. That’s a nifty idea, except for the fact that virtually the entire outside of the seven-story building is going to be jack-hammered, with about six weeks of pounding, scraping and other chaos ahead of us. It’s a massive operation, and since we’re on the top floor, all the scaffolding and pulley systems for moving materials around are going to be installed right outside the window of my home office here, with plenty of turmoil in evidence throughout the month-and-a-half operation.

But here’s the kicker.

We had been told that this whole building repair thing was going to start in mid-August, so Patty and I have been making plans to work around that event as best we can.

That’s why we were especially surprised when we got back from lunch yesterday (June 30, with Mercury still retrograde) to discover that access to the front door of our condo had been blocked by massive construction equipment that the contractors had moved into place during our two-hour absence. They began the renovation work about six weeks ahead of schedule, and spent the rest of the afternoon pounding on the sides of the building, running noisy motors, and generally creating a commotion that’s sure to become the norm for the next month or so, whether we like it or not.

It’s not that I’m complaining, mind you. The building truly needs this work badly, and I’m really looking forward to having the renovation done.

But the bad timing and the botched communications still surprised me — as if I really needed a fresh lesson on the power of Mercury retrograde to mess things up!

And so today, Mercury returned to direct motion.

At last!

As this celestial event took place, was in the office of my cardiologist, getting ready to step onto a treadmill for a stress test, with a tube in my arm and all kinds of wires coming out of my chest.

I wasn’t really thinking too much about Mercury going direct at that moment, but the whole treadmill experience was a lot less challenging than I had anticipated, and the nurse who was working with me seemed impressed with what she observed.

I’ll have to wait until next week to review all the results with my cardiologist– this is my first full stress test since my heart surgery last October, so it’s good that we’ll be looking at the numbers when Mercury is no longer retrograde.

And I’m glad that Mercury had gone direct when I stepped onto the treadmill this morning!

 

Astro-Trading Silver at the Summer Solstice

When I was interviewed by Michael Yorba on his Traders Network radio show yesterday, we had a great chance to discuss this weekend’s Summer Solstice and it potential impact on the markets.

The Summer Solstice will arrive at 6:51 a.m. EDT on Saturday morning, June 21st.

This event is carrying some extra weight this year because of the recent activations of the 90-degree cardinal point at the beginning of Cancer by Venus and Mercury. These events have already shown their importance in moving the markets; the Summer Solstice is the Sun’s activation of that same 90-degree point in the cardinal axis. That’s just one of the reasons that W. D. Gann gave it so much attention.

To get an idea about the potential impact of the Summer Solstice on stock market trading, be sure to check out this chart for the historic effect on the S&P 500. As you can see, our back-testing of this index during this annual event gives us good reason to consider adding some short positions to the Financial Cycles Model Portfolio at this time.

But not all markets are likely to decline at the Summer Solstice. Take a look at what happened to Silver when this event took place last year:

Silver Summer Solstice 2013
Silver responded emphatically to the Summer Solstice in 2013, with the precious metal climbing by nearly 13% in the month of trading just after this key planetary event.

Needless to say, if you’re interested in trading precious metals, be sure to your homework thoroughly! Even though we got a big bounce in Silver at the Summer Solstice last year, and even though the Summer Solstice coming within three trading days of an isolated low in Silver about 76% of the time, this event only triggers a trend reversal to the upside about 29% of the time. So a rally in Silver (or in any other precious metals) is not a foregone conclusion following the Summer Solstice this year.

You’ll get more details about the Summer Solstice activation of the 90-degree cardinal point and its creation of a major zodiac pressure point for the markets in this recording of the complete 10-minute interview with Michael Yorba during yesterday’s show on the Traders Network:


click here to download or listen on your mobile device

By the way, during this interview I mentioned to Michael that I’m currently working on some new planetary cycle research to help fine-turn our understanding of the trading top that’s just ahead of us in the equities markets. This new report on “How To Time The Next Market Top” will be available in about a week; CLICK HERE if you’d like to get on the list for early-bird notification as soon as it’s available.

Stock Market Trading at the Summer Solstice

Yesterday’s market action just after the announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee was a clear reminder not only of the power of the Fed in swinging market sentiment, but also of the power of the cardinal zodiac points.

It’s the 90-degree location that’s in play right now, at the start of the zodiac sign of Cancer.

This was one of W. D. Gann’s favorite spots to watch in his astro-trading research and market forecasting, and for very good reason.

As I’ve noted before, one of the things that made the timing of the announcement yesterday so noteworthy was the fact that transiting Mercury was conjunct Pluto in the Federal Reserve horoscope, which also happens to be at this key 90-degree zodiac location.

This kind of conjunction is not terribly rare in and of itself, of course– what was unusual was the fact that it came during an FOMC meeting.

The result, of course, was an extremely sharp response from the markets, as I noted in my post after yesterday’s market close.

In a kind of knee-jerk overreaction to the announcement, the equities indices rallied sharply during the final hours of trading, but we’re expecting some solid price consolidation and a possible pull-back during today’s trading, as the transiting Mars activation of the Fed’s Moon/Saturn midpoint comes into play more strongly.

The next time we get an activation of this key zodiac point is just ahead of us– it’s the Summer Solstice coming up this Saturday.

While the market impact is a little hard to forecast because this is a weekend event and because the net effect may be reduced somewhat by Mercury’s current retrograde condition, the Summer Solstice itself has a solid track record for triggering trend reversals in the markets– it happens about 3 out of 4 times.

S&P Summer Solstice
The Summer Solstice helps trigger trend reversals in the S&P 500 about 74% of the time.

We’ve been back-testing the last 53 times this event has happened, and have found that the Summer Solstice has previously triggered a trend reversal down roughly 44% of the time, a trend reversal up 30% of the time, and no trend reversal at all 26% of the time.

Since the stock market remains in a disturbingly persistent uptrend right now, it looks like the odds favor a move to the downside following the June 21 Summer Solstice this year.

We won’t know how it works out until Monday, of course, but right now our expectation is that we’ll see declining prices in equities as the new trading week gets underway.

“Gann was very private about using astrology….”

When I joined Michael Yorba for my weekly interview on his Traders Network radio program on Thursday, he asked me to help make sense of the market action.

“A lot of folks are getting whipsawed,” he said, because of the contradictory signals and the confusing market action.

I told him that one of the clearest indicators we’ve got going right now is the change of seasons at the Spring Equinox, which was a key market timing indicator used by W. D. Gann.

“W. D. Gann was very private about his use of astrological cycles in market forecasting,” I said, “but he had a pretty good track record.”

As an extra bonus for Michael’s listeners, I had also used the social network page on his website to post a link to my recent video about the back-testing we’ve done with the Spring Equinox, resulting in a specific trading strategy for precious metals, individual equities, and market indices from around the world.

Michael also commented about the savings his listeners could get when they used his special YORBA coupon code to order the new report on The Stock Market Collision Course.

You can here the entire interview, which also includes Michael’s questions about Elliott Wave counts and price targets, by clicking the player here:


click here to download or listen on your mobile device
By the way, even if you missed the original broadcast you can still use the Coupon Code I mentioned in the interview to get a 10% discount on the new Stock Market Collision Course report.

Just go to http://bit.ly/ATsmcc and click through to order, then use Coupon Code YORBA during the check-out process.

Yes, There’s Truth To The Rumor….

I’m not sure how the word has leaked out, but it has.

I guess it’s just another Mercury Retrograde side effect.

Anyway, however it’s happened, there’s been talk about the new training project that I’ve been working on. And in the last couple of days I’ve been getting some pretty direct questions about it.

So I’ll confess– it’s true.

For some time now I’ve been putting together a selection of some of the most advanced and profitable astro-trading techniques that make up the cutting edge of what’s happening today.

There’s been a lot of research and back-testing going on, and a good bit of production work to create a truly unique training experience.

So now we’re ready for the pre-registration phase, and I’ll be sharing all the details on it within the next 24 hours.

I’ll even put together a quick video that will, I hope, explain why this is unique training is so special.

When it’s all official, you’ll be the first to know.