Tag Archives: dollar

Euro Bottom Just Ahead?

Are we facing a euro bottom?

Is this a good time to buy the currency?

While euro bottom questions are typically the concern of avid FOREX traders, this time the query came from a different source.

My step-daughter Jennifer was visiting us for a few days. We were relaxing with drinks on the patio overlooking the river.

Making Summer Plans

She was talking about her plans for the rest of the summer.

Jennifer and her husband will be spending most of July in France.

She loves vacationing there. And for this visit she’s already making a list of new things to check out.

Earlier that day she had popped in at a local coffee bar, and had struck up a conversation with the barista, who, it turned out, was a native Parisian.

By the time Jennifer had gotten her latte, she had also gotten a couple of suggestions about great restaurants to try in Paris.

She’s eager to check them out.

But, she asked me, what’s the outlook for the euro?

“The last time we went to France the exchange rate was really high,” she said. “I don’t remember the exact rate, but I do know it took a lot of dollars to get euros.”

Complicated Math

She shrugged.

“I got kind of confused with the math. So to keep things simple, I just doubled the money in my mind. If something cost 15 euro, I figured I was was really spending 30 dollars. That seemed to work out pretty well.”

That’s why she wanted to know about the current exchange rate.

When I told her that you could currently get one euro for about $1.12, she seemed quite pleased.

“That’s great!” she said. “Our money will go a lot farther this trip. But do you think it will stay low? I mean, should we be getting some euro now to plan ahead for our vacation?”

Looking At A Euro Bottom

I told her that I’d do a little research.

I started by running a cycle analysis based on the EUR/USD trading history. Here’s what I came up with:

euro bottom cycle chart

When I showed Jennifer that chart, she was quick to react. The euro bottom seemed pretty obvious.

“It definitely looks like the time to be buying euro,” she said.

I cautioned her that cycle projections are just that – projections.

“This is certainly not a guarantee that we’re at an absolute bottom now,” I said. “But it does look like prices will be going up from here.”

An Astro Confirmation

Later that day, as I was putting together some material for an upcoming webinar on Transneptunian effects, I decided to take a look at the historic impacts of Mars/Kronos conjunctions on the price of the euro.

We have a Mars/Kronos conjunction coming up on June 2nd.

The back-testing chart was quite revealing:

While the astrological back-testing doesn’t guarantee that a euro bottom is in any more than the cycle analysis does, it interesting to see.

It definitely suggests that this may indeed be a good time to go euro shopping.

Islamic State Dinar – Threat or Joke?

The new money on the world scene, the Islamic State dinar, has gotten only cursory attention from the mainstream media since its introduction last week.

Most news outlets have treated it as a curiosity, worthy of a few oblique comments or ham-fisted wisecracks at best.

But as I looked at the astrology behind this bit of news from the Islamic State (formerly known as ISIS or ISIL, depending on your source) I realized that there may be more here than meets the eye.

That ‘s why I pulled together my research to present a special webinar last night on “The Hidden Side of the New Money” – my hope was that we could open up a discussion about the potentially very serious implications of this latest salvo from the Islamic State in the ongoing global currency wars.

If you missed the webinar, or want to review the information, you can watch the full recording here:

Take a look, and be sure to leave me a comment – I’d really like to know what you think about this new development, no matter what your feelings about the Islamic State may be!

Should FOREX Traders Be Worried?

 

PhoneShockMoney

You don’t have to be a FOREX trader to know that something big is brewing in global currencies.

The Japanese yen has been in the spotlight as the Bank of Japan cranks up the printing presses and the economic news  continues to be turbulent.

The euro has been fighting hard to keep its head above water, but there’s still plenty of doubt about its longer-term stability.

Meanwhile, the US dollar has been looking pretty good. But just how long will that last, especially with China lurking in the background?

And just last week, some brand-new money hit the world stage, emerging from a completely unexpected source.

It’s obviously not an active factor in FOREX trading yet, but the astrology behind the event suggests that we need to take this newcomer very seriously!

I’ve been digging into the relevant horoscopes, and have really been amazed by what I’ve been seeing – this could wind up going far beyond FOREX, with a ripple effect that could be felt for years to come!

I’ll be sharing the details in a special webinar on Wednesday evening – hope you can join me for that free event:

Mercury & Pluto at the Fed Announcement: Big Action for Stocks, the VIX, and the Dollar, Too!

In spite of the fact that one of our readers has dubbed the comments posted here on the Fed’s announcement today “the worst call out there”, it’s still interesting to see exactly what the markets actually did in the final hours of trading today– and to anticipate what the action in equities will look like tomorrow.

Throughout most of the trading day prior to the 2:00 p.m. announcement, stock prices were churning in a somewhat apprehensive market with a decidedly bearish bias.

But when the Fed announcement was released, it immediately became apparent that Mercury’s conjunction with the Fed Pluto was having exactly the kind of dramatic impact we had anticipated. The major market indices all rallied, breaking into positive territory and pushing to new heights by the end of the trading session.

Fed Indices Response
The S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ Composite all rose after the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee made its announcement on June 18, 2014.

The S&P not only rallied, it also managed to hit yet another all-time record high by the time the closing bell on Wall Street rang. Note as well that both Gold and the Euro showed significant strength for the day.

It was also worth watching the VIX during the trading session. This measure of market volatility took a sharp plunge right after the Fed’s announcement, confirming the old “buy the rumor, sell the fact” adage– once the facts were known about the Fed’s intentions, a lot of the uncertainty that had roiled the market action earlier in the day began to fade away.

Fed Announcement VIX Response
The VIX reaction to the Fed’s announcement was quite dramatic.

In looking at the VIX chart, it’s worth observing that the index had already risen to the higher levels we had forecast last week as a potential response to Mercury’s retrograde passage over the cardinal axis. We’re still looking for more action in this Fear Index during the coming weeks, with a return to higher levels of volatility as we approach the July 4 Independence Day holiday.

This dramatic action in the VIX was further confirmation of the power of the Mercury/Pluto combination that made the timing for this event so noteworthy.

But even though the Mercury/Pluto action bore out the forecast, I had also looked at the Mars transit to the Fed chart and had assumed that the market’s reaction to the announcement would be “less than enthusiastic,” based largely on the activation of the Moon/Saturn midpoint in the Fed horoscope.

Things didn’t turn out that way.

We certainly didn’t see a negative reaction in equities during the remainder of the trading day. But Mars moves more slowly than Mercury, so the impact of its transit is likely to carry on a little longer. That’s one of the reasons why we’re still anticipating a pull-back in stock prices before the end of the week– and why our Gold-Plus Elite members at FinancialCyclesWeekly.com are planning to add to the short positions in our Model Portfolio before the market closes on Friday..

Remember, too, that the influence of the Federal Reserve goes far beyond just the price of stocks. The Fed’s announcements have a big impact on currencies, of course, which is why it was particularly interesting to see what happened to the dollar this afternoon:

Dollar Reacts to Fed
The U.S. Dollar Index had been trending lower before the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday afternoon, but as soon as the official word was released the Greenback started going through wild swings. Volatility remained high for the rest of the day, with the dollar pushing sharply lower.