Tag Archives: Dow Industrials

Fearless Forecast 2017

A market forecast for 2017?

About a month ago I got just such a request from Timer Digest.

They wanted to know my forecast for the coming year, in terms of what I was anticipating for action in the stock market.

Using The Dow As A Measurement

They wanted things spelled out with specific numbers for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. While I don’t necessarily agree that it’s the best market measurement to use, I went along with the plan.

Here’s what I told Timer Digest:

The General Trend Forecast

We’re anticipating a bullish year in 2017.

We expect to see congested trading from the first of the year through mid-February, followed by an aggressive rally into mid-May.

A well-defined trading range should dominate the summer months, with repeated tests of a stubborn resistance zone.

By late August a fairly sharp sell-off should come into play, lasting until late October.

We anticipate steady bullishness at the end of the year to set new record highs by the close of 2017.

Specific Targets In The Dow

We have a DJIA target of 20605 at the end of the first quarter, 2017.

By mid-year we expect to see the DJIA trading at 22788.

Our target closing price for the DJIA at the end of 2017 is 23823.

A Shameless Plug For Financial Astrology

We base our 2017 forecast on cycles studies and our assessment of the planetary dynamics throughout the year, especially the lunar nodal cycle and the solar eclipses in February and August.

We expect the August solar eclipse to have a particularly strong impact on raw materials and infrastructure concerns, creating short-term market disruption followed by fresh opportunities.

Tim Bost Forecast Cover Timer Digest
The market forecast and trading service at FinancialCyclesWeekly.com and editor Tim Bost were the subject of a special feature in Timer Digest on March 9, 2015

In Retrospect

Right now, as we look ahead to the actual trading results we’ll be getting in 2017, I’m wondering if perhaps I didn’t stick my neck out a little too far with this forecast.

After all, those Dow numbers do seem pretty incredible.

Even so, I’m sticking by my forecast. If the cycle work I’ve done is even close to being correct, an insanely bullish trend is well within the realm of possibility, especially during the first half of the year.

We’ll just have to see what happens.

Trade Management Really Matters

I guess I should be more vocal about trade management.

At least that’s the word that I just got in an email from Richard, who’s been following our work in market astrology for the last few years.

“If I may give you an opinion on your emails (I’ve been receiving them for quite some time),” Richard said, “you never talk about strategies for position size management, entering with low risk, managing the trade (managing the risk), pyramiding (adding to a winning position), thoughts on anti-martingale strategy (reducing size when performing poorly) and discipline/patience (Staying out of the market when there is no trade) and also cutting losses while they are still small.

“You also don’t seem to recommend any books or anything. So that’s just my opinion.”

Why Trade Management Is Missing

Needless to say, I really appreciate Richard’s sharing his opinion.

And his point is well taken.

The truth is, I don’t mention trade management very often in the emails I send out to subscribers who have opted-in to get more information about our programs, products, and services.

And there’s a reason for that.

Most of those email subscribers have signed up to get notifications because they’re curious about financial astrology.

They want to know whether or not astro-trading really works.

Some of them are active in the markets.

But most of them are just thinking about trading. They’e never actually put money into the markets.

Or they’re just kicking the tires of astro-trading because they haven’t really decided yet if they’re interested or not.

So sending them emails with an in-depth focus on trade management doesn’t really help them very much.

So Where’s The Trade Management Information?

It’s a different story, however, for our members, students, and customers.

Trade management is a key part of virtually everything that we teach about astro-trading.

It’s been at the core of the trading strategy that we’ve used with the Financial Cycles  Model Portfolio.

Trade Management Creates This Track Record

It’s what’s responsible for our repeated success. Our Model Portfolio has consistently out-performed the Dow and the S&P 500 year after year, without any losing years for the past 14 years.

Trade management is also a big part of the done-with-you services we provide for our Gold-Plus Elite members at financialcyclesweekly.com.

In our weekly conference calls we discuss specific trade management strategies with our members. Our weekly newsletter provides detailed trade management guidelines for each of the trades active in the portfolio. It also includes suggested parameters for the new trades we are considering during the coming week of trading.

Individual Attention To Trade Management

The fact is, trade management is essential if you want to be successful in the markets.

I personally drive that point home again and again in the one-on-one coaching calls that I have with active traders. They want the extra edge that the astro-trading advantage offers.

It’s a standard part of each group mentoring call that I facilitate for our Project Regulus members, who make a long-term commitment to astro-trading mastery.

It will also be a big part of our discussions at the Heart of the Lion Astro-Trading Symposium in September.

What Can Effective Trade Management Do For You?

Managing your trades effectively is mainly about following a specific set of rules.

When you enter a trade, determine in advance how much you’re prepared to lose.

Set your initial stops accordingly.

Pay attention to position size. Don’t bite off more than you can chew.

Use the timing guidelines we provide for our Gold-Plus Elite members. They’re designed to identify high-probability, low-risk trading opportunities.

Once a trade is active, trail your stops periodically. This helps reduce your risk and then lock in your profits.

Heed the guidelines we give our Gold-Plus Elite members about the specific times to stay out of the markets. We can tell in advance when we want to avoid initiating active trades.

Most importantly, be sure to take losses quickly and cheerfully. A quick loss is typically a small loss, which means you’ve saved some of your trading capital. It’s money that you can use again to trade another day!

Finally, don’t forget that a vital part of trade management is managing yourself as a trader.

Remember to keep notes on yourself.

How are you feeling? Why are you taking the trades that you have chosen? What’s going through your mind when the market turns? What’s happening with the money in your horoscope?

The more clearly you understand yourself as a trader, the more effective your trade management will be.

More Trade Management Resources

Although we often mention trade management principles in our live webinars and other interactions, you’ll also find great resources in some of our courses and training programs for astro-traders.

“The Confidential Astro-Trading Formula for Financial Independence” and “Astro-Trading and Your Personal Money Flow” are two good examples.

Both courses are available in online video format. That means you can absorb the information at your own pace.

They can both provide a big boost to your trade management skills.

And from time to time, you can get them free.

We’re giving both of these top-level training programs away as bonuses with our new Gold-Plus Elite ROI Accelerator program.

This is a high-level membership. We only open the doors for new participants for brief periods every few weeks.

But when we do, you can get both courses – plus a bundle of other great bonuses – as a free gift for enrolling.

If you want to polish up your trade management skills with this bonus material, be sure to CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

 

General Electric Transneptunians

isioWhen we took at look at the impact of Transneptunian factors on the performance of General Electric (GE) stock in a recent issue of the FinancialCyclesWeekly newsletter, we described this stock as “a boring blue chip”.

While it’s true that General Electric doesn’t often offer traders much excitement, it’s still a stock that’s worth keeping an eye on, especially if we’re trying to get some perspective on the overall prospects for the market as a whole.

Gеnеrаl Elесtrіс Stосk Returns

The General Elесtrіс Cоmраnу is one оf thе lаrgеѕt соmраnіеѕ in thе world. It has often bееn a bеllwеthеr stock used аѕ a gauge оf the оvеrаll hеаlth оf thе ѕtосk mаrkеt in general.

Onе оf thе reasons it has been given this role is the dіvеrѕіtу of Gеnеrаl Elесtrіс’ѕ products аnd ѕеrvісеѕ. Thе соmраnу іѕ іnvоlvеd in nеаrlу еvеrу market ѕеgmеnt frоm lіghtіng, tо fіnаnсіаl рrоduсtѕ, to thе aviation іnduѕtrу, to hеаlthсаrе, to thе tеlеvіѕіоn іnduѕtrу, аnd fіnаllу to the еnеrgу ѕесtоr. As a result, Gеnеrаl Electric’s profits and losses often соіnсіdе with thе оvеrаll health оf the есоnоmу as a whole.

Kronos at the Last General Electric Stock Split

Sіnсе 1975, General Electric hаѕ had five ѕtосk ѕрlіtѕ, with thе mоѕt rесеnt one bеіng a 3-fоr-1 ѕрlіt on May 8, 2000, when transiting Kronos turned the GE First-Trade Uranus/Poseidon opposition into a potent T-square as transiting Neptune conjoined the GE First-Trade Descendant.

General Electric Stock Split Horoscope
The General Electric stock price responds to planetary transits. Note the alignments of outer planets and Transneptunians on the date of a 3-for-1 stock split.

Durіng that tіmе, thе General Electric Cоmраnу hаѕ роѕtеd 25 positive-rеturnіng years аnd 14 years of nеgаtіvе returns. Ovеr hаlf оf the positive years rеѕultеd іn rеturnѕ greater thаn 25%, wіth thе highest thrее bеіng 65% іn 1982, 52% іn 1999, and 48% in 1997. Thе wоrѕt thrее реrfоrmіng уеаrѕ wеrе (-56%) in 2008, (-39%) in 2002, and (-16%) іn 2001. Except for an 11% loss in 1991, all thе rеmаіnіng losing уеаrѕ were (-10%) оr lеѕѕ.

A nісе еxаmрlе of thе ѕіmіlаrіtу оf General Electric’s stock performance аnd the оvеrаll ѕtосk market саn be done through a simple соmраrіѕоn оf thе уеаrlу rеturnѕ оf thе Dow Jones Induѕtrіаl Indеx (DJIA) аnd thе yearly rеturnѕ оf GE. Between 1975 and 2006, General Electric аnd the DJIA have mоvеd іn thе ѕаmе direction еvеrу уеаr except for 1994, whеn GE lоѕt 3% and thе DJIA gained 2%. In the eight years since then, the correspondence hasn’t been quite as strong, with GE losing ground in 2007, 2009, 2011, and 2014, which we all years in which the DJIA posted gains. Even, so, аѕ аn investor іt іѕ a good іdеа to kеер a сlоѕе wаtсh оn thе performance оf Gеnеrаl Elесtrіс ѕtосk.

Diversity and Long-Term Investment

Through іtѕ dіvеrѕе rаngе оf рrоduсtѕ, GE almost becomes a mini-index by іtѕеlf. From a very pragmatic perspective, General Electric is a great stock for long-term investors, mainly because its dіvеrѕіtу рrоvіdеѕ some built-in рrоtесtіоn аgаіnѕt many of thе vоlаtіlе uрѕ аnd dоwnѕ that рlаguе mаnу individual ѕtосkѕ.

Of соurѕе, if you’re playing the market for the long-term еvеn GE ѕhоuld bе раrt оf a wеll-bаlаnсеd роrtfоlіо rаthеr thаn a sole holding, with all your eggs in the General Electric basket. While іt mау bе “ѕаfеr” and mоrе ѕtаblе than many іndіvіduаl stocks, іt ѕtіll has more rіѕk than a wеll-dіvеrѕіfіеd роrtfоlіо.

 

Like A Dump Truck Full of Gravel…

We were still in the final hour of trading when I was on the air with Michael Yorba earlier today on his Traders Network radio show.

At the time, the sell-off in U.S. equities had already gotten underway, but we still didn’t have an indication of just how big the losses for the day would be at the closing bell, with the Dow Industrials off by 1.41% and the S&P 500 down 1.17% on the session.

That selling action wasn’t on the radar for most traders when the opening bell rang this morning, but as I noted in my blog post this morning, the Uranus/Poseidon waxing quincunx had the power to pull the rug out from anything that looked too much like a rally. By the end of the trading day a Sun/Saturn waxing trine was also looming large, adding to the bearish pressure.

As I told Michael Yorba during our interview, it was a lot like what we would be experiencing if we had gotten in our car and had begun driving behind a dump truck full of gravel, with the flying debris of cosmic alignments smacking the market’s windshield as we hurtle down the highway.

There’s a lot more debris headed our way as we move along the Stock Market Collision Course during the coming weeks. It’s a time for cool heads and solid astro-trading strategies.

That’s what Michael and I talked about today– you can hear the entire 10-minute interview here:


click here to download or listen on your mobile device

A Chat with Yorba about the Market’s Collision Course

I had a great time chatting with Michael Yorba on his Traders Network radio show yesterday afternoon just before the closing bell.

During our interview, he wanted to know about the string of astrological dynamics that are set to slam the markets during the coming weeks, with a special push toward a potential trend reversal as we finish up February and move into March, with Mercury retrograde ending and Mars retrograde getting started.

It was an especially appropriate topic, since the S&P 500 closed yesterday at 1854.29, a new all-time record high for that index, dramatically setting the stage for a trading top as the aggressive planetary factors come into play.

Jupiter-Uranus Waxing Square impact on S&P-500, NASDAQ, Dow Industrials and VIX

I also posted this collection of charts on Yorba’s social media page, illustrating the effects of the Jupiter/Uranus waxing square on the S&P 500, the NASDAQ Composite, the Dow Industrials, and the VIX. On each chart, the center vertical zero point is the exact date of the Jupiter/Uranus aspect, with the graph showing the average percentage of price movement for 30 days before and 30 days after the date of the planetary alignment.

By the way, the webinar I mentioned during the interview is now available as a recorded online video to view at your convenience — I got it posted on this blog last night, so you can see it right away at http://wp.me/p1VnSz-ky

You can listen to the full 10-minute interview with Michael Yorba from yesterday’s show on the Traders Network right here:

click here to download or listen on your mobile device

You’ll also want to check out the new report on The Stock Market Collision Course — it provides detailed information about the historical impact of the cycle of Jupiter/Uranus waxing squares, and also features 50 horoscopes and trading charts as well as a detailed listing of the key planetary dynamics that we expect to move the markets in the immediate future. You can download a copy at http://bit.ly/ATsmcc or just CLICK HERE.

Not Much Of A Surprise

Patty and I were out and about this afternoon, and since we’d missed lunch we stopped into a restaurant to get something to eat at about 3:45.

The waiter was very apologetic that he couldn’t offer us Happy Hour prices since it wasn’t quite 4:00 p.m. yet, but that didn’t bother me very much. What really caught my attention was the TV behind the bar that was tuned to a business channel.

The talking heads were discussing the market close, with the Dow Industrials finishing up the day down more than 215 points and the other indices following suit. A commentator was protesting that the Dow had started the day on a bullish note, and had been “just 86 points away from a new all-time record high” before selling off sharply and taking a big loss for the session.

What was curious to me was not just the fact that this pundit was trying to turn the day’s nose-dive into optimistic news, but also the obvious degree of surprise he was expressing that equities prices had retreated at all. In fact, the headline on the screen announced a “Surprise Sell-Off in Stocks After Strong Start”.

It all just provided evidence for what should have been obvious all along– these TV commentators hadn’t been looking at the market through astrological eyes!

From an astro-trading perspective, it had been clear in advance that we could expect a market downturn today. I had specifically forecast it in this week’s FinancialCyclesWeekly newsletter, and had warned our Gold-Plus Elite members about the likelihood of a bearish start to the trading week during our conference call last night.

That’s what the astro-trading is all about– not just knowing ahead of time what to expect, so you can be on the right side of the market at the right time, but also having market insights that set you apart from the media madness and the blind impulses of the herd.

Solar Eclipse Smashes the Stock Market

If anybody ever tells you that astrological events don’t influence the market, just point out what happened in equities trading yesterday.

The Dow took a 185-point nosedive, down 1.45%.

The Russell 2000 lost 2%, and the NASDAQ lost 1.29%, dropping down to test support levels dating back to last July.

The S&P 500 plunged by 1.39% and finished the session below its 200-day moving average, a very bearish signal.

Of course there’s been a good bit of weakness in the markets recently, so a day of big losses should have come as no surprise. And there were war worries, European nervousness, and Fiscal Cliff anxiety. . .

. . . and a big impact from a major solar eclipse!

As I pointed out recently in my monograph on The Solar Eclipse of November 2012: Its Impact on the Markets, “eclipses are the single most significant  celestial phenomena that we need to reckon with in financial forecasting and market timing.”

This week’s solar eclipse wasn’t even visible in the U.S., but it still slammed the stock market.

The eclipse reached totality about an hour after the closing bell on Tuesday, and as I watched the market action that day it was easy to see its gathering influence.

Stocks had traded in positive territory for most of the day, but about an hour before the close things began to go south and the major indices all ended up with losses by the time the closing bell rang.

In yesterday’s trading session, the force of the eclipse was in full effect, and stock prices struggled to stay afloat to no avail, then sold off with a vengeance.

So yes, astrological events do have an effect on the markets! But that’s only part of the story.

The other part is this: the effects of the November 13 solar eclipse aren’t over yet!

We’re likely to see more downside action today, of course, but the solar eclipse will continue to make its influence felt, no just for days, but for months to come, well into the first half of 2013.

That’s one of the key lessons discussed in the monograph on The Solar Eclipse of November 2012: Its Impact on the Markets. It lists the exact dates to look for activations of the eclipse in the markets, and suggest some specific stocks to trade so you can get the eclipse energy working for you instead of against you.

This would be a really good time to review your copy and make some trading plans in the light of what’s coming up. If you’ve haven’t gotten a copy yet, it’s still available at http://bit.ly/Eclipse1211.

 

The Stock Market and the U.S. Presidential Election

Robert R. Prechter, Jr., best known for his work with the Elliott Wave Principle as a tool for forecasting stock market and economic trends, also wrote a book called The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics, published in 1999.

This book is must reading for anyone hoping to understand the ways that social mood impacts the markets, and in defining the science of socionomics Prechter laid some important groundwork that has brought more refinement and accuracy to the work of predicting future trends.

The big forecasting question on everybody’s mind right now is, of course, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November, and right on time Bob Prechter came out last Thursday with an updated version of a research report that he authored earlier this year with Deepak Goel, Wayne D. Parker, and Matthew Lampert, published by the Socionomics Institute.

Titled “Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections”, this report makes for fascinating reading. Here’s the abstract:

“We analyze all U.S. presidential election bids. We find a positive, significant relationship between the incumbent’s vote margin and the prior net percentage change in the stock market. This relationship does not extend to the incumbent’s party when the incumbent does not run for re-election. We find no significant relationships between the incumbent’s vote margin and inflation or unemployment. GDP is a significant predictor of the incumbent’s popular vote margin in simple regression but is rendered insignificant when combined with the stock market in multiple regression. Hypotheses of economic voting fail to account for the findings. The results are consistent with socionomic voting theory, which includes the hypotheses that (1) social mood as reflected by the stock market is a more powerful regulator of re-election outcomes than economic variables such as GDP, inflation and unemployment and (2) voters unconsciously credit or blame the leader for their mood.”

In other words, the better the stock market does during the years of a U.S. president’s first term of office, the more likely he is to be reelected if he runs for a second term. For example, here’s a chart of the Dow Industrials, showing the market trend for the last six years, with the time that Barack Obama took office in January 2009 noted on the chart:

Dow Industrials 2006-2012
This chart shows weekly price bars for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Note the market bottom just after President Obama took office in late January, 2008, with an overall uptrend after that.

We’ll have to wait until November to see just how accurate this forecasting tool proves to be. In the meantime, however, you can download a complete copy of the report on “Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections” by clicking here.

 

Another Great Week for Our Gold-Plus Elite Members

Kudos to our Gold-Plus Elite members at FinancialCyclesWeekly.com!

Even though the stock market as a whole was down last week, they cashed in on some short-term trades and walked away with some very attractive profits.

For the trading week ending on September 28, the Dow Industrials were down by 1.05% and the S&P 500 fell 1.33%. The NASDAQ Composite dropped 2.00% and the Russell 2000 lost 2.11%.

But our Gold-Plus Elite members closed 6 trades, with one trade losing $85.00 and the remaining 5 trades bringing in a total profit of $1,790.00.

Those winning Model Portfolio trades had an average ROI of 3.40%, with the market exposure in each trade lasting less than 9 trading days on average — in other words, our Gold-Plus Elite members were in and out of their market positions in less than two calendar weeks, but pocketed profits that would have taken them about seven years to earn if they had put their money in savings accounts at today’s interest rates!

Check out the record of the week’s trades for yourself to get the details.

The best thing, of course, is that our Gold-Plus Elite members don’t have to be expert traders to get these results — and they don’t have to know anything about astrology, either. They can enjoy the full benefit of the astro-trading advantage without specialized knowledge because our Gold-Plus Elite membership is a complete, done-for-you program that provides the ultimate in hand-holding guidance so you can trade with a minimum amount of time, effort, and anxiety.

All trading involves financial risk, of course, and our Gold-Plus Elite members do have some losing trades as well as winners. But winning weeks like this past one pay for the membership many times over!