Tag Archives: oil prices

Crude Oil Plunge Continues

Crude Oil prices continued their sharp decline today.

When I last checked, crude oil was trading at $48.43 a barrel. That’s a day-to-day decline of about 1.72% – on top of the sharp pullback the commodity has seen during the past couple of trading sessions.

Crude Oil Down
Crude Oil dropped by more than 9 percent on March 8 and 9 to close below $50 a barrel.

The price decline has created some consternation for active crude oil traders. That’s been especially true, of course, for those with big long positions.

Distress Among Crude Oil Traders

I had an opportunity to get some first-hand feedback on this surprising market during the course of the trading day yesterday.

Crude Oil Price Drop VideoAnd, as I summarized in a brief YouTube video, one of the dominant reactions is surprise.

Surprise that the price decline is happening at all.

Surprise that it’s happening so quickly.

And surprise at the ripple effect it’s been having, in ancillary sectors like exploration equipment and oil pipelines.

Of course surprise is one of the big emotional components that can drive important action in the markets. But even so, I’m not so sure that it’s fully justified in this case.

Solar Eclipse Market Forecast

At least the drop in oil prices shouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone who read our new e-book, Courage and Clarity in a Time of Turmoil, which was published last month.

This comprehensive 135-page publication covers a lot of territory. It includes a detailed analysis of eclipse activation dates and the resulting anticipated market trends through next October.

It also features a specific forecast for Crude Oil during the months ahead.

We based that forecast on the eclipse activation of the NYMEX Crude Oil horoscope, using the 90-degree dial as a frame of reference.

The NYMEX Crude 90-Degree Dial

NYMEX Crude Oil Feb17 Eclipse
February 2017 solar eclipse activation of the NYMEX Crude Oil horoscope.

The 90-degree dial is simply a representation of the traditional horoscope that allows us to see fourth-harmonic and eighth-harmonic alignments more clearly.

In this case we’re using the NYMEX Crude First-Trade chart, and have turned the red pointer to the position of the February solar eclipse.

That pointer triggers the Mecury/Saturn and Hades/Kronos midpoints in the chart, providing us with a clear signal that a pull-back in oil is in the works.

 

 

Sunspot Activity & The Economy

Link Between Economic Activity and Sunspots Confirmed

sunspot activity
A gigantic sunspot – almost 80,000 miles across –can be seen on the lower center of the sun in this image from NASA’s Solar Dynamic Observatory captured on Oct. 23, 2014. This article by Bill Meridian reviews the connections between sunspot activity and the economy.
Image Credit: NASA/SDO

 

“Solar activity as measured by the number of sunspots also adds to the explanation of the probability of a recession.”

A Guest Post by Bill Meridian

Cycles Research

Once again, scholastic research has confirmed the link between planetary activity and the economy here on earth.

In the Global Conference on Business and Finance Proceedings, Volume 7, Number 2, from 2012, there is an article linking changes in the economy to sunspots. Cees J. Prins wrote ‘Solar Activity and Economic Recessions: The Case Of The US.’

Direct and Indirect Influences on the Economy

The author concluded, “The probability of a recession taking place depends on many variables. When the interest rate spread between 10 years government bonds and 3 months Treasury Bills is negative a recession is imminent. Also stock prices can give valuable information with predicting power. Solar activity as measured by the number of sunspots also adds to the explanation of the probability of a recession. In the 3 models that are estimated for 6 time periods the number of sunspots is always very significant. The sun has direct and indirect influences on the economy. To the first category belong damages to electronic networks. The indirect effects are the influences on human emotions and in the end also to the economy.”

One of the most dramatic events associated with sunspot activity is a solar flare, which can create electromagnetic phenomena that disrupt communications on Earth.
One of the most dramatic events associated with sunspot activity is a solar flare, which can create electromagnetic phenomena that disrupt communications on Earth.

Forecasting Recessions with Sunspot Activity

In his work, Prins took several variables and determined their value in forecasting recessions. He began with the inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term rates) because it is well known that this situation has led to a recession each time it has occurred.

He added variables such as stock prices, the leading indicators of the OECD and The Conference Board, the gold price, the oil price, new building permits, new job creation, corporate rate spreads, long-term rate spreads, and sunspots.

The inverted yield curve, stock market returns, and sunspots were the consistent variables in economic forecasting.

In his words, “It is clear that the model has one interesting and significant long term variable: the number of sunspots.” And, “The number of sunspots, as an indication of the activity of the sun, appeared to be a highly significant variable in explanation of a recession during all the periods investigated.”

Sunspot Activity Leads The Pack

It is noteworthy that only one traditional variable, inverted rates, consistently exceeded sunspots as a forecasting tool. Sunspots led all of the other traditional tools.

 

About The Author

Our guest post is by Bill MeBill_Meridianridian, a leading financial astrologer who is the editor of Cycles Research newsletter and the author of Planetary Stock Trading (4th edition) and The Predictive Power of Eclipse Paths.

You can learn more about Bill Meridian and his services and publications at http://billmeridian.com/