Tag Archives: presidential elections

Spot-On Stock Market Forecast

A spot-on stock market forecast doesn’t happen every day.

The truth is, I don’t even try to make a spot-on stock market forecast every day.

It’s not part of my regular agenda.

Oh sure, I’m in the forecasting business.

It’s part of the contributions I make to astro-trading education, as I watch market patterns and look for active trading opportunities.

I’ve spent much of the past five decades applying astrological tools to predicting future trends, in and out of the markets.

A lot of that work has been pretty accurate.

In fact, my forecasting skill earned me the top honors as the Timer of the Year from Timer Digest in 2017.

But although I’m frequently a guest on financial programs, it’s not always about what’s likely to be coming up next.  Forecasting is just part of the picture.

A Sneaky Kind of Event

Even so, there are times when a spot-on stock market forecast just sort of sneaks up on me.

I’ll get engaged in exploring a theory or explaining an idea, and all of a sudden I’ll spot a correlation or a hidden cycle that spontaneously opens up a fresh perception.

That new insight results in a precision forecast – and sometimes that forecast is actually right!

That’s what happened to me a few weeks ago, on Friday, October 16.

I was a guest that day on Larry Pesavento’s Trade What You See program on TFNN.

We talked about the upcoming presidential election., and the chances for Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

We also discussed the latest trends in the S&P 500.

My main focus was the potential impact of the Mercury retrograde period that had just gotten underway a few days before our conversation.

I noted that the direct station at the end of the retrograde period was likely to be a particularly sensitive time, both in and out of the markets.

Saturn sets up a spot-on stock market forecast

I also observed that when Mercury went direct, it would be making a powerful square to Saturn.

That observation led me to examine the previous times Saturn had been at the same position in the zodiac since the first of the year.

As it turned out, Saturn had  been at 26Capricorn 22 on February 12 and August 23.

On February 12 the S&P 500 closed its trading day at 3379.45.

August 23 was a Sunday, with the markets closed for the day. During the previous trading session, on Friday, August 21, the  S&P hit an intra-day low of 3379.31.

The Saturn Coincidence That Led To A Spot-On Stock Market Forecast

This interesting coincidence – and its clear correlation to Saturn positions – prompted me to suggest that we would see the S&P trading at 3379 once again, at the time of the Mercury direct station on November 3.

The Truth Is, I Was Really Sticking My Neck Out

Let’s put that forecast into perspective. When I was talking with Larry, just a few minutes after the opening bell on October 16, the S&P was trading at a much higher level.

In fact, the high on the previous trading day had been 3499.09.

So the S&P would have to drop by about 3.4% in order to hit my forecast target.

But the astrology looked pretty good, so I stuck with my forecast.

You can watch the complete video of my October 16  interview with Larry Pesavento here:

So the big question is, how accurate was this forecast?

What Was The Ultimate Result?

So did this end up being a spot-on stock market forecast?

Almost – just 25 minutes shy of the closing bell on the projected trading day.

Actually, I think that was close enough!

The Mercury station came just a few hours into the trading day on Tuesday, November 3, at 12:50 p.m. Eastern time.

During the previous trading day, on Monday, November 2, the S&P 500 hit a low of 3279.74 – a full 100 points lower than our projected price target of 3379.

Then, on November 3, the S&P gapped higher to start the trading day.

During the course of the trading day, it hit a high price of 3389.49. It closed at 3369.02.

And, at 3:35 p.m. on Tuesday, November 3, it traded at exactly 3379.20. That was 2 hours and 45 minutes after the precise Mercury direct station alignment.

In other words, it was a spot-on stock market forecast – thanks to the power of the astro-trading advantage!

World Leaders and Global Markets at Mercury Retrograde

When Mercury goes retrograde on Tuesday, October 13, it starts a stressful interlude leading up to the US elections on November 3, the date that the retrograde period ends.

Mercury Station For World Leaders
Many world leaders are likely to be impacted by the Mercury retrograde station – and experience lingering effects throughout the entire Mercury retrograde period.

But the retrograde station itself also signals specific challenges for markets, geopolitics, and political world leaders.

With that in mind, we’ve reviewed some of the Mercury station’s connections with midpoint structures in key horoscopes. Here’s what we found.

The current Stocks To Watch in our Financial Cycles Weekly Model Portfolio all have strong resonance with the retrograde Mercury. The station triggers the ATVI midpoints for Vulcanus/Chiron, Uranus/Node, Neptune/Node, Sun/Pluto, and Moon/Mercury; the MSFT midpoints for Admetos/Midheaven, Venus/Kronos, Neptune/Kronos, and Aries/Sun; the QCOM midpoints for Moon/Node, Mars/Uranus, and Cupido/Poseidon; and the TSCO midpoints for Sun/Neptune, Jupiter/Ascendant, Mercury/Apollon, Moon/Neptune, and Uranus/Cupido.

The New York Stock Exchange triggers Sun/Saturn [difficulties, hindrances, falling ill] & Venus/Hades [grief & adversity].

NASDAQ triggers Neptune/Poseidon [misrepresentations of facts, false pretenses, erroneous ideas].

COMEX GOLD triggers Mar/Vulcanus [great strength, mighty activity], Cupido/Hades [stored supplies, stockpiling, hoarding], Moon/Poseidon [mediumship, spiritual influence], and Sun/Jupiter [rich people, a successful money day].

Tim Bost with New Book

Bitcoin triggers Venus/Kronos [preference, affection, a helping hand] & Poseidon/Node [global conceptions & ideals, beneficial mental & spiritual unions]. Our position on the cryptocurrency continues to be extremely bullish.

World Leaders At The Mercury Retrograde Station

There are also specific people in the spotlight.

Notable affected world leaders include Narendra Modhi with Node/Cupido [creating community] & Mars/Hades [fatigue, serious sickness, unusual deaths, erroneous actions, damages and misfortunes]; Vladimir Putin with Cupido/Vulcanus [expansion of domestic political power] & Jupiter/Ascendant [popularity & happy companionship]; Benjamin Netanyahu with Aries/Vulcanus [global expressions of power, might & force] & Node/Chiron [alliances becoming very problematical]; Xi Jinping with Pluto/Hades [deterioration, evil change, dishonesty, unreliability & worsening conditions] & Kim Jong Un with Saturn/Admetos [hardship, lack, being in a tight spot] & Uranus/Vulcanus [sudden global acts of violence, huge force unleashed unexpectedly].

Good Luck In A Tight Situation

The personalities in the US presidential race are also impacted, especially in light of the COVID-19 trigger of Moon/Mercury [increasingly rapid spread among the population]. Mike Pence has Sun/Cupido [a married man] & Uranus/Hades [sudden damages & accidents, disgusting acts]. Donald Trump has Neptune/Cupido [disharmony, breakups, unfaithful husband, moving away]. Kamala Harris has Jupiter/Admetos [good luck in a tight situation]; Joe Biden has Venus/Jupiter [joyous rapture] & Pluto/Kronos [self-made man ascending in rank, a change in government].

Election Violence & Uranus-Admetos

Is there election violence just ahead?

The planetary aspects at the U.S. elections on November 8 are disturbing, to say the least.

They certainly suggest the possibility of election violence. It could be either at the polls themselves or in the aftermath of the vote count.

The Saturn-Vulcanus waxing sesquiquadrate contributes to a hyper-vigilant attitude. It’s a “do or die” dynamic that’s essentially looking for trouble. It stays on guard against imagined offences.

The Mars-Admetos waning trine adds to the tension. It signals an urge to take aggressive action against immovable obstacles. There’s a strong possibility that “get out the vote” forces could confront “suppress the vote” resistance.

Election Violence From A Pleasant Source?

And then there’s the conjunction of Venus with the transneptunian Cupido.

It’s just after the Election Day opening bell on the New York Stock Exchange.

Now don’t get me wrong.

Venus and Cupido are two of the good guys in astrology.

Venus is all about love, harmony, money, the arts, and beauty. It’s the feminine mystique personified.

Cupido is connected with community, family connections, and the sharing of common cultural heritage.

So when Venus and Cupido get together it’s typically good. We normally expect social harmony, pleasant connections, and marital bliss.

Venus Cupido S&P High
The Venus-Cupido conjunction marked a trading top for the S&P 500 in December, 2014.

But as this chart for the S&P 500 in 2014 shows, we sometimes get something else.

The Venus-Cupido conjunction coincides with trading tops about 60 percent of the time.

But this time the two planets meet, on Tuesday, November 8, we may get even more negative results.

Venus Cupido signals election violence
The Venus-Cupido conjunction on November 8, 2016 won’t be taking place in isolation. It may even trigger election violence.

This 90-degree dial for the Venus-Cupido conjunction shows the meeting of the two planets at 25º 41′ Sagittarius.

But what’s interesting is not just the connection between those two beneficial planets.

It’s the fact that they trigger the Uranus-Admetos midpoint.

That’s pretty ominous.

This midpoint activation signals shocking social convulsions. We could see wanton destruction, murders, earthquakes, and yes, even election violence.

At the very least, we can expect sudden breakups of trusted associations.

Individuals and factions will be excluded.

They’ll need to learn how to go it on their own.

They may have wounds that take a very long time to heal.

It’s not a pretty picture.

Election Violence and the Markets

Don’t forget. The markets can react to social and political news in dramatic ways.

Election violence could amplify the November Meltdown in equities.

That’s exactly why I hosted a special webinar earlier today.

November Meltdown Webinar
We discussed the prospects for election violence during the live webinar on November 5, 2016.

During that session we took an-depth look at the current planetary stress.

We explored the roots of the election stress.

We checked the horoscopes for Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, and James Comey.

And we shared solid strategies for profiting in these tense times.

The webinar recording is well worth downloading.

Election Violence in 1876

The election campaign this year has certainly been vicious.

But it’s not the only time that an election got nasty.

1876 election violence
Election violence was rampant in the aftermath of voting in 1876.

The prize for election violence goes to 1876.

Voters went to the polls on Tuesday, November 7, 1876. It was one of America’s most contentious and controversial contests.

The 1876 results are among the most disputed ever. But it’s certain that Samuel J. Tilden of New York outpolled Ohio’s Rutherford B. Hayes in the popular vote.

Hayes got 4,034,311 votes. Tilden got 4,288,546.

After a first count of votes, Tilden won 184 electoral votes. Hayes got 165.

But 20 votes were left unresolved. These 20 electoral votes were in dispute in four states.

In Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina, each party reported its candidate had won the state.

In Oregon one elector was replaced. He had been declared illegal for being an “elected or appointed official”.

Ultimately, all three of Oregon’s votes were awarded to Hayes.

Hayes thus had a majority of one in the Electoral College.

The Democrats cried fraud. Tension and hostility swept the country.

Tilden supporters threatened that Hayes would never be inaugurated.

“Tilden or Blood” became the rallying cry. In Columbus, Ohio, a shot was fired at Governor Hayes’s residence as he sat down to dinner. Supporters marched to his home, calling for the “president”.

Hayes tried to calm the crowd. “It is impossible,” he said, “at so early a time, to obtain the result.”

As incidents of election violence surged, President Grant took action. He strengthened the military force in and around Washington.

 

A look at the h1876-tildenhayesoroscope for the disputed election of 1876 is revealing.

Saturn activates the Mercury-Kronos midpoint, so authoritative communications were in short supply.

With the Venus/Chiron mipoint also getting triggered, harmony and cooperation were difficult to establish.

But most important of all, Saturn also activated the Uranus-Admetos midpoint at the 1876 election. That’s the same combination being triggered now, setting the stage for stress and tension, and possibly even some election violence.

Was It the Election, or Was It Mercury?

Stocks sold off sharply today, right in line with our forecast in the FinancialCyclesWeekly.com newsletter, where I told readers to watch for “some significant consolidation in stock prices, if not a more decisive move into negative territory as the trading week comes to an end.”

According to the financial press, today’s market plunge was a reaction to President Barack Obama’s successful bid for reelection.

Or to general weakness in the economy.

Or to the looming fiscal cliff.

Take your pick.

If you’re watching the planetary influences on the markets, however, you understand that there’s additional insight to be found in the cosmic influence on the emotions that drive the markets.

The current waxing heliocentric Jupiter/Pluto quincunx is one potential culprit– this planetary alignment has a track record of driving stock prices lower 75% of the time. But more importantly, we had Mercury making its retrograde station yesterday evening a couple of hours after the closing bell in the markets, just as the election returns started coming in.

Mercury is extremely important to watch in our day-to-day astro-trading, and Mercury stations are particularly critical in defining key market movements.

That’s one of the key topics in my new book on Mercury, Money and the Markets. You can get a copy at Amazon.com, or directly from the publisher at http://bit.ly/MercuryBook.

The Stock Market and the U.S. Presidential Election

Robert R. Prechter, Jr., best known for his work with the Elliott Wave Principle as a tool for forecasting stock market and economic trends, also wrote a book called The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics, published in 1999.

This book is must reading for anyone hoping to understand the ways that social mood impacts the markets, and in defining the science of socionomics Prechter laid some important groundwork that has brought more refinement and accuracy to the work of predicting future trends.

The big forecasting question on everybody’s mind right now is, of course, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November, and right on time Bob Prechter came out last Thursday with an updated version of a research report that he authored earlier this year with Deepak Goel, Wayne D. Parker, and Matthew Lampert, published by the Socionomics Institute.

Titled “Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections”, this report makes for fascinating reading. Here’s the abstract:

“We analyze all U.S. presidential election bids. We find a positive, significant relationship between the incumbent’s vote margin and the prior net percentage change in the stock market. This relationship does not extend to the incumbent’s party when the incumbent does not run for re-election. We find no significant relationships between the incumbent’s vote margin and inflation or unemployment. GDP is a significant predictor of the incumbent’s popular vote margin in simple regression but is rendered insignificant when combined with the stock market in multiple regression. Hypotheses of economic voting fail to account for the findings. The results are consistent with socionomic voting theory, which includes the hypotheses that (1) social mood as reflected by the stock market is a more powerful regulator of re-election outcomes than economic variables such as GDP, inflation and unemployment and (2) voters unconsciously credit or blame the leader for their mood.”

In other words, the better the stock market does during the years of a U.S. president’s first term of office, the more likely he is to be reelected if he runs for a second term. For example, here’s a chart of the Dow Industrials, showing the market trend for the last six years, with the time that Barack Obama took office in January 2009 noted on the chart:

Dow Industrials 2006-2012
This chart shows weekly price bars for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Note the market bottom just after President Obama took office in late January, 2008, with an overall uptrend after that.

We’ll have to wait until November to see just how accurate this forecasting tool proves to be. In the meantime, however, you can download a complete copy of the report on “Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections” by clicking here.