Tag Archives: recessions

Bitcoin Rally Revives Bullish Fever

Thanks to the current bitcoin rally, the cryptocurrency world in general is getting lots of attention.

There’s been a resurgence of bullish interest in bitcoin during recent weeks.

A lot of bullish interest.

The fabled cryptocurrency has surged to new highs, hitting price levels not seen for the past 10 months.

It’s now trading well above $8,000.

In fact, as this is being written it’s just topped $8,600!

A Fresh Bitcoin Rally

What’s behind the sudden frenzy creating a fresh bitcoin rally?

According the Michael Hartnett, the chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the dramatic move to the upside is a signal that global recession fears are growing steadily.

The bitcoin rally could in fact be an indication that we’re experiencing a massive and precipitous collapse of confidence in the world’s governments and in the core structure of the international financial system.

But Hartnett theorizes that global investors are investing in bitcoin not because they believe it is a safe haven asset in times of uncertainty and instability.

He says it’s because they are looking for high-risk, high-reward investments.

He argues that low interest rates on bond yields since the financial collapse in 2008 has left investors starved of profits, sending them into a global “greed trade” across corporate, emerging market, and crypto securities.

Dystopian Loss of Faith

Hartnett’s analysis resonates with a comment earlier this year by John Normand, JPMorgan’s head of cross-asset fundamental strategy.

He noted that “We have long been skeptical of cryptocurrencies’ value in most environments other than a dystopian one characterized by a loss of faith in all major reserve assets (dollar, euro, yen, gold) and in the payments system.”

Dystopian is a strong word, but with the broad economic implications of the Trump-China trade war it may not be inappropriate.

Tim Bost with New Book

From an astrological perspective, however, the surge in bitcoin prices is not too surprising. In the Bitcoin Astrology book (which I co-authored with Bill Meridian, Goncalo Moreira, Christeen Skinner and Wendy Stacey), there’s a note (on page 112) of a winning bitcoin trading strategy.

It’s a particularly bullish solar cycle.

It currently has a track record of successfully predicting a bitcoin rally 86 percent of the time.

That bullish solar transit has been in play since late April.

It continued through the trading week just behind us.

And this last time around, it brought a boost in the price of bitcoin of roughly 52%!

Mars-Hades bitcoin rally

Coming up next, we expect to see a significant impact on bitcoin from the Mars/Hades conjunction on May 27.

As our back-testing chart shows, we can expect this planetary combination to bring about three weeks of congested trading.

That’s likely to be followed by another surge triggering a fresh bitcoin rally.

The zodiac position of this Mars/Hades conjunction is also worth noting; we’ve pointed to it on the 90º dial for the bitcoin inception horoscope.

Midpoint Triggers

It triggers the following midponts:

Mars/Admetos [a sinking market]

Mercury/Saturn [price excursions]

Mercury/Uranus [exciting news]

Uranus/Apollon [expansion by leaps and bounds]

Jupiter/Hades [a shortage of money but good luck in black market dealings].

Based on those planetary activations, we can certainly expect to see plenty of bitcoin trading excitement during the months ahead!

Sunspot Activity & The Economy

Link Between Economic Activity and Sunspots Confirmed

sunspot activity
A gigantic sunspot – almost 80,000 miles across –can be seen on the lower center of the sun in this image from NASA’s Solar Dynamic Observatory captured on Oct. 23, 2014. This article by Bill Meridian reviews the connections between sunspot activity and the economy.
Image Credit: NASA/SDO

 

“Solar activity as measured by the number of sunspots also adds to the explanation of the probability of a recession.”

A Guest Post by Bill Meridian

Cycles Research

Once again, scholastic research has confirmed the link between planetary activity and the economy here on earth.

In the Global Conference on Business and Finance Proceedings, Volume 7, Number 2, from 2012, there is an article linking changes in the economy to sunspots. Cees J. Prins wrote ‘Solar Activity and Economic Recessions: The Case Of The US.’

Direct and Indirect Influences on the Economy

The author concluded, “The probability of a recession taking place depends on many variables. When the interest rate spread between 10 years government bonds and 3 months Treasury Bills is negative a recession is imminent. Also stock prices can give valuable information with predicting power. Solar activity as measured by the number of sunspots also adds to the explanation of the probability of a recession. In the 3 models that are estimated for 6 time periods the number of sunspots is always very significant. The sun has direct and indirect influences on the economy. To the first category belong damages to electronic networks. The indirect effects are the influences on human emotions and in the end also to the economy.”

One of the most dramatic events associated with sunspot activity is a solar flare, which can create electromagnetic phenomena that disrupt communications on Earth.
One of the most dramatic events associated with sunspot activity is a solar flare, which can create electromagnetic phenomena that disrupt communications on Earth.

Forecasting Recessions with Sunspot Activity

In his work, Prins took several variables and determined their value in forecasting recessions. He began with the inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term rates) because it is well known that this situation has led to a recession each time it has occurred.

He added variables such as stock prices, the leading indicators of the OECD and The Conference Board, the gold price, the oil price, new building permits, new job creation, corporate rate spreads, long-term rate spreads, and sunspots.

The inverted yield curve, stock market returns, and sunspots were the consistent variables in economic forecasting.

In his words, “It is clear that the model has one interesting and significant long term variable: the number of sunspots.” And, “The number of sunspots, as an indication of the activity of the sun, appeared to be a highly significant variable in explanation of a recession during all the periods investigated.”

Sunspot Activity Leads The Pack

It is noteworthy that only one traditional variable, inverted rates, consistently exceeded sunspots as a forecasting tool. Sunspots led all of the other traditional tools.

 

About The Author

Our guest post is by Bill MeBill_Meridianridian, a leading financial astrologer who is the editor of Cycles Research newsletter and the author of Planetary Stock Trading (4th edition) and The Predictive Power of Eclipse Paths.

You can learn more about Bill Meridian and his services and publications at http://billmeridian.com/