Tag Archives: record highs

Fearless Forecast 2017

A market forecast for 2017?

About a month ago I got just such a request from Timer Digest.

They wanted to know my forecast for the coming year, in terms of what I was anticipating for action in the stock market.

Using The Dow As A Measurement

They wanted things spelled out with specific numbers for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. While I don’t necessarily agree that it’s the best market measurement to use, I went along with the plan.

Here’s what I told Timer Digest:

The General Trend Forecast

We’re anticipating a bullish year in 2017.

We expect to see congested trading from the first of the year through mid-February, followed by an aggressive rally into mid-May.

A well-defined trading range should dominate the summer months, with repeated tests of a stubborn resistance zone.

By late August a fairly sharp sell-off should come into play, lasting until late October.

We anticipate steady bullishness at the end of the year to set new record highs by the close of 2017.

Specific Targets In The Dow

We have a DJIA target of 20605 at the end of the first quarter, 2017.

By mid-year we expect to see the DJIA trading at 22788.

Our target closing price for the DJIA at the end of 2017 is 23823.

A Shameless Plug For Financial Astrology

We base our 2017 forecast on cycles studies and our assessment of the planetary dynamics throughout the year, especially the lunar nodal cycle and the solar eclipses in February and August.

We expect the August solar eclipse to have a particularly strong impact on raw materials and infrastructure concerns, creating short-term market disruption followed by fresh opportunities.

Tim Bost Forecast Cover Timer Digest
The market forecast and trading service at FinancialCyclesWeekly.com and editor Tim Bost were the subject of a special feature in Timer Digest on March 9, 2015

In Retrospect

Right now, as we look ahead to the actual trading results we’ll be getting in 2017, I’m wondering if perhaps I didn’t stick my neck out a little too far with this forecast.

After all, those Dow numbers do seem pretty incredible.

Even so, I’m sticking by my forecast. If the cycle work I’ve done is even close to being correct, an insanely bullish trend is well within the realm of possibility, especially during the first half of the year.

We’ll just have to see what happens.

Market Tops & Tipping Points

With a variety of astrological factors working in tandem this week to drive stock prices higher through midweek, I was expecting to see a sell-off in equities get underway yesterday.

That didn’t happen.

Instead of pulling back, stock prices drove higher, with the S&P 5000 closing above the psychologically-important 1700 mark for the first time ever. The mainstream media is crowing this morning about the record rally that’s underway, instead of issuing warnings about a market correction waiting in the wings.

So we’ll see what happens today as trading gets underway.

One of the challenges in fine-tuning our market timing with astrology is that the astrological patterns that help drive the markets don’t always coincide with the exact hours that the markets themselves are open. The big Jupiter/Kronos alignment this week, for example, came hours after the closing bell in New York, rather than conveniently falling within the confines of the formal trading session.

When we’re doing our back-testing, of course, we’re primarily using daily historical data, so the calculations that go into our market forecasts don’t always match the exact dates of the upcoming market action. The net result is that we could be a day late or a day early in seeing the market phenomena suggested by the astrological factors at work.

So I’m looking for lower prices in equities today, since a pull-back wasn’t in evidence yesterday. Whether it’s attributed to profit-taking or genuine corrective impulses, a lower close in the S&P would be consistent with what we’ve seen astrologically.

But of course, the markets will always do whatever the markets choose to do, regardless of the precision of our back-testing, the carefulness of our forecasts, or the intensity of our hopes and wishes.

Remember that the basic rule in profitable astro-trading is to pay more attention to making money in the markets than to being 100% right in forecasting. That’s why we’ve currently got both long and short positions in the the Financial Cycles Model Portfolio– even if the market behavior doesn’t match our forecast, we’re confident that our trading strategies will continue to give us profitable results!

Things Not Working Out As Expected

When there’s a void-of-course Moon, things typically don’t work out as we expect them to. What may seem like a really good thing can turn out to be a dud, and our choices in activities, political candidates, and major purchases usually fail to deliver what we had hoped for.

That’s certainly what happened in the stock market yesterday, with a void-of-course Moon in effect for the entire trading day.

The action in the S&P 500 got off to an enthusiastic start, with stock prices rallying as traders celebrated the news that an eleventh-hour settlement had been reached to avert a financial collapse in Cyprus.

The rally was strong enough, in fact, to push the S&P up to within a hair’s breadth of an all-time record high in the early hours of the trading session.

But then everybody sobered up.

Traders started thinking about the real implications of the deal in Cyprus, which, as we’ve pointed out already in articles and blog posts, is totally bogus in terms of providing a workable long-term solution to the country’s economic woes. And, as traders began to realize yesterday, the crisis in Cyprus can still have a very impact on the economic stability of other nations, both in Europe and throughout the rest of the world.

So the selling in the stock market began.

What had started out as an enticing flirtation with an all-time high finished up as a net loss for the day, with the S&P dropping by 0.33% to close at 1551.69 at the closing bell.

It was a perfect example of why we’re very, very cautious in our trading whenever there’s a void-of-course Moon!

Not Much Of A Surprise

Patty and I were out and about this afternoon, and since we’d missed lunch we stopped into a restaurant to get something to eat at about 3:45.

The waiter was very apologetic that he couldn’t offer us Happy Hour prices since it wasn’t quite 4:00 p.m. yet, but that didn’t bother me very much. What really caught my attention was the TV behind the bar that was tuned to a business channel.

The talking heads were discussing the market close, with the Dow Industrials finishing up the day down more than 215 points and the other indices following suit. A commentator was protesting that the Dow had started the day on a bullish note, and had been “just 86 points away from a new all-time record high” before selling off sharply and taking a big loss for the session.

What was curious to me was not just the fact that this pundit was trying to turn the day’s nose-dive into optimistic news, but also the obvious degree of surprise he was expressing that equities prices had retreated at all. In fact, the headline on the screen announced a “Surprise Sell-Off in Stocks After Strong Start”.

It all just provided evidence for what should have been obvious all along– these TV commentators hadn’t been looking at the market through astrological eyes!

From an astro-trading perspective, it had been clear in advance that we could expect a market downturn today. I had specifically forecast it in this week’s FinancialCyclesWeekly newsletter, and had warned our Gold-Plus Elite members about the likelihood of a bearish start to the trading week during our conference call last night.

That’s what the astro-trading is all about– not just knowing ahead of time what to expect, so you can be on the right side of the market at the right time, but also having market insights that set you apart from the media madness and the blind impulses of the herd.