,W. D. Gann had the right idea when he paid attention to Groundhog Day in an oblique kind of way.
After all, Groundhog Day is a curious bit of American folklore.
The 1993 “Groundhog Day” movie with Bill Murray created a cultural archetype. When you mention Groundhog Day, many people immediately connect the name with the notion of endlessly-repeating events.
I guess you could say that it’s like deja vu all over again….
Not Just Deja Vu
But Groundhog Day is actually a long-observed American holiday.
One that W. D. Gann knew quite well.
It had its U.S. origins with German settlers in southeastern and central Pennsylvania in the 18th and 19th centuries.
According to the traditions associated with this annual event on Februrary 2, if it’s cloudy when a groundhog emerges from its burrow on that date, spring will come early.
If it’s sunny, on the other hand, the groundhog will see its shadow and return to hibernation as winter weather persists for six more weeks.
February 2 is also the annual date of Candlemas and of the festival of Imbolc in the Celtic calendar. More important for astro-traders, it also marks the midpoint of the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox in the northern hemisphere.
W. D. Gann and the Eighth Harmonic
It thus has particular significance as an eighth-harmonic calendar point in W. D. Gann’s market calculations.
As many students of this pioneering astro-trader’s work understand, W. D. Gann deeply understood the significance of market timing. He knew that paying attention to the calendar was one of the keys to connecting price and time for more profitable trading results.
To that end, W. D. Gann focused on the dates of the solar cardinal ingresses throughout the year:
As the Sun moves into the zodiac sign of Aries, we have the vernal equinox, the start of Spring in the northern hemisphere.
With the Sun’s entry into Cancer, the summer solstice ushers in another change of season.
The Fall Equinox comes with the passage of the Sun into Libra.
And the first day of Winter in the northern hemisphere comes when the Sun moves into the zodiac sign of Capricorn.
W. D. Gann’s Innovation
But W. D. Gann took things even farther.
In working with his calendar calculations and market forecasting, W. D. Gann also paid close attention to the timing midpoints between those cardinal solar ingresses.
This year, however, Groundhog Day has special significance for astro-traders. Uranus and Pluto will revisit their waxing square on that date; it’s an alignment that had seven exact iterations between 2012 and 2015. Although the two planets don’t make a precise 90-degree alignment this time around, it’s worth paying attention to the market reaction.
While various markets reacted to those Uranus/Pluto configurations in different ways, the manifestations outside of the markets were consistent with previous Uranus/Pluto fourth-harmonic influences: a big increase in social, religious, and political tensions, with extremism and belligerence hitting major heights.
With that kind of extra stress coming at a critical calendar point this time around, we could see disruptive or contentious influences in the news that may make their presence felt in the markets, too.
Applying W. D. Gann’s Astro-Trading Principles
As modern astro-traders, we have a clear advantage over W. D. Gann.
We not only have the opportunity to stand on his shoulders, and follow his lead in market analysis and timing our trades – we also have a tool he didn’t even dream of:
Today, thanks to astro-trading software like the Fibonacci Trader/Galactic Trader program, we can rapidly visualize astrological dynamics in the markets through planetary price lines and other tools.
October surprises in the stock market usually mean bad news for the bulls.
At least that’s the popular notion about the month.
After all, October has a solid reputation for being associated with stock market disasters.
History In The Making
There was the October surprise of the historic stock market crash in 1929, of course.
And the back-to-back October massacres of 1978 and 1979, as well as the major crash in 1987.
They all took place in different Octobers, just like the market plunge on Friday the 13th in 1989, the staggering 554-point drop on October 24, 1997, and the acceleration of the last big market crash in 2008.
October Surprises That Aren’t Bad News
But not all Octobers wind up bringing bad news for the stock market.
In fact, some Octobers during the past 60 years have been extremely positive, at least as far as triggering positive trend reversals have been concerned. There have been a dozen times when stock prices were in a bearish sell-off, and the downtrend came to an end during the month of October.
A Trading High and a Solar Eclipse
The first example comes from 1946.
In that year, the Dow Industrial Average hit a trading high on May 29, which was the eve of a powerful solar eclipse. The decline that followed that eclipse pulled stock prices lower by more than 24% over the coming months, until the market found a bottom on October 10.
Three Months with the Bears in Charge
In 1957, Mercury was just entering the sign of Leo at the Full Moon in July when the market top took place. A decline of more than 19% followed, with the sell-off lasting until October 22.
A 14% Market Loss Ends in October
Three years later, a market top at the Full Moon on June 9, 1960 led into a decline of almost 14% before a trend reversal on October 25 defined a trading bottom, with Mercury stationary and about to go retrograde.
Ending the Plunge of 1962
Trading had just gotten underway for the year on January 3, 1962 when Saturn entered Aquarius and the market began a fierce decline. It plunged by more than 26% before a reversal at the Venus retrograde station on October 23 defined a double bottom in the market trend.
Trying in Vain to Break 1000
In January, 1966 the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to trade above the magic 1000 mark on an intra-day basis for two consecutive days, but failed to close at that level both times. Then on February 9 and 10, the Dow again traded above 1000, but also failed to maintain that price level at the close. Instead, the stock market went into an extended decline after its failed excursion – the index lost nearly 26% by the time it found a trading bottom on October 7.
October Ends a 21-Month Bear Market
Venus was just entering Capricorn on January 11, 1973 when the Dow topped off a 13-month rally and closed at 1051.70. That high was followed by a fierce bear market, with the index dropping by more than 44% over the next 21 months.
The bloodbath finally came to an end on October 4, 1974, when the Dow hit an intra-day low of 573.22 and prices began to move back upward. That October low was tested successfully in early December, and by January 1975 a clear rebound was underway.
The Harmonic Convergence Market Top
At the stock market’s opening bell on August 24, 1987, the much-publicized “Harmonic Convergence” was underway, with a cluster of the Sun, Mars, Venus, the Moon and Mercury all within an incredibly tight orb of less than four-and-a-half degrees. This alignment was forming a loose Grand Trine pattern with Jupiter and Neptune, creating an extraordinary planetary signature of peak speculation.
Sure enough, on the following day the Dow surged up to close at the then-incredible level of 2722.42. But the celebration didn’t last long. The stock market began to lose ground, and in spite of trying to define a trading bottom in September, soon broke through support in early October. The culmination came on Monday, October 19, when the Dow gapped down at the open, went into free-fall, and lost 508 points by the closing bell.
This two-month bear market brought the Dow down by more than 36%, but once again October helped define the bottom and end the sell-off (even though it had also brought the historic crash). On October 20 the Dow closed up by more than 100 points, and a slow but steady recovery got underway.
Market Resistance at 3000
There was a Jupiter/Saturn opposition in play on Monday and Tuesday, July 16 and 17, 1990 as the Dow Jones Industrial Average tried valiantly to close above the 3000-point psychological barrier.
It closed both days at 2999.75.
That failed attempt at the peak of a tug-of-war between the planetary forces of expansion and contraction triggered a sell-off which lasted for just three months, but which brought the index down by almost 22%. A Mars/Jupiter sextile on October 11 added some positive energy to help trigger a trend reversal to the upside.
A Trading Top at a Jupiter Station
The market rallied strongly during the first half of 1998, but when Jupiter went retrograde on July 17 the action topped out with the Dow closing at 9337.97. That prompted a slid of more than 17% before the the market hit a bottom on October 8 and began its recovery.
Uranus, Terrorists and a Moving Average
After a pull-back into the Spring Equinox in 2001, the Dow had rebounded robustly into mid-May. On May 30, however, with a Uranus retrograde station in play, the index dropped below its 25-day moving average, triggering an extended price decline that brought the Dow down more than 16% by early September.
Then, with the September 11 destruction of the World Trade Center, the markets plunged even further, bringing the net loss to almost 29% since the high in May. It took some time for confidence to resume, but by October 10 the Dow was trading above its 25-day moving average once again, paving the way for an advance that was to last through the end of the year.
Another Top at the Spring Equinox
In 2002 the Dow Jones Industrial Average once again hit a high at the Spring Equinox, but trended lower after that. As I noted at the time in the FinancialCyclesWeekly newsletter, “The market rally that had been in play for the past month came to a screeching halt last week, with the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 virtually unchanged for the week as they barely managed to stay in positive territory and with the NASDAQ dropping by more than 3% for the week.”
The Doiw had dropped by nearly 33% when that year’s October Surprise kicked in to bring an end to the bear market on October 10, as Venus and Saturn made back-to-back retrograde stations.
A Mars/Jupiter Square in October
In 2011 an intense rally during the opening months of the year took the Dow to a new high of 12876.00 on May 2, on the eve of the New Moon. Five months later, the Dow was down more than 19% to hit a low of 10404.49 at the Hades station and Mars/Jupiter square on October 4. By early February, 2012, the Dow was trading well above the high it had set the previous May.
October Surprises – Good and Bad
The bottom line here is that October has often been a pivotal month. The October surprises come from the big market shifts that can occur, but those shifts can be either bullish or bearish.
As astro-traders, we can look for big opportunities in October. As we’ve often seen in studying the markets, big trend changes can sometimes accompany major planetary alignments. When those alignments take place in October, we need to pay very close attention!
When I joined Michael Yorba for my weekly interview on his Traders Network radio program on Thursday, he asked me to help make sense of the market action.
“A lot of folks are getting whipsawed,” he said, because of the contradictory signals and the confusing market action.
I told him that one of the clearest indicators we’ve got going right now is the change of seasons at the Spring Equinox, which was a key market timing indicator used by W. D. Gann.
“W. D. Gann was very private about his use of astrological cycles in market forecasting,” I said, “but he had a pretty good track record.”
As an extra bonus for Michael’s listeners, I had also used the social network page on his website to post a link to my recent video about the back-testing we’ve done with the Spring Equinox, resulting in a specific trading strategy for precious metals, individual equities, and market indices from around the world.
Michael also commented about the savings his listeners could get when they used his special YORBA coupon code to order the new report on The Stock Market Collision Course.
You can here the entire interview, which also includes Michael’s questions about Elliott Wave counts and price targets, by clicking the player here:
As noted in the caption for this diagram, the critical price levels for the day were from 1801 to 1873– an intra-day high or low, or a close for the day, at one of these prices would be powerful confirmation of the Spring Equinox energy at work in the market.
As it turned out, the trading yesterday in the S&P hit the price target of 1873 as predicted in the newsletter our members received– the exact high was 1873.49– and the Index closed just one point below that, at 1872.01.
We refer to this kind of precise alignment with a planetary price point as a Correct High, a perfect picture of price and time coming together.
Today is the Spring Equinox, which is one of the most important dates in the year as far as the determination of market trends is concerned.
At least that’s what W. D. Gann thought, and he mentioned the date of the Spring Equinox in a number of places in his writings on trading methods and market forecasting.
That’s why we decided to put Gann’s theory to the test by back-testing more than a dozen market indices from around the world, as well as precious metals, currencies, and a group of individual equities.
We came up with some surprising results, which I shared in an online video a couple of days ago.
We also featured this research, along with a Universal Clock illustration based on Gann’s Wheel of 24, in the most recent issue of the FinancialCyclesWeekly newsletter.
In that article, I noted that for the S&P 500 Index at the Spring Equinox today, “the Sun’s position triggers prices of 1801, 1825, 1849 and 1873. We’ll watch for support and resistance at those prices.”
So far today, the S&P has been trading well above the 1849 mark, but has had an intra-day high of just 1866 and change.
We’ll have to wait and see if it hits the 1873 level or not. If it does, it will be a big confirmation of a potential sell-off tomorrow, especially if that’s the closing price or an intra-day high.
We also developed a high-probability trading strategy that can be applied to the markets right away.
The Spring Equinox will be here on March 20, bringing the possibility of a big inflection point in the markets.
Equities usually react pretty bearishly to the Equinox, at least for the short term. There’s a big price dip for a day or two, as the high-energy impact of the Sun’s passage into Aries makes itself felt in interpersonal emotions and on the trading floor.
Then things begin to settle down.
They settle down and then often start to look so rosy that we actually see a bit of bullishness invading the market environment!
When I observed this phenomenon, it inspired me to take another look at some of W. D. Gann’s ideas, which soon confirmed that I was on the right track in following the planetary influence on the markets.
But I didn’t stop there.
I came up with a hypothetical trading plan based on the Spring Equinox, and then did extensive back-testing to see if that approach — a “14-Day Spring Equinox Trading Strategy” — would actually hold up under pressure.
The results were pretty amazing, which is why I recorded this video about the project:
In spite of the fact that it can sometimes be a little challenging to understand and apply, W. D. Gann’s work is always worth paying attention to. For example, I was just reviewing the brief report I did a couple of years ago, W. D. Gann on Natural Trend Change Dates in Daily Market Movements, and seeing how accurate his simple method proves to be. Interesting stuff!
The government in Cyprus is scrambling to try hammer out a deal with European Unit ministers so they can arrange for a $13 billion bailout for the country before the EU’s Monday deadline.
If the deadline isn’t met, the country’s financial system could collapse, dragging much of Europe and even other parts of the world down with it.
As things stand now we’re highly likely to see the Forces of Reason and Make-Nice Public Relations prevail, so I fully expect to see some kind of settlement announced before tomorrow morning.
But whatever the settlement details are, it’s likely to wind up being a bogus deal, since the astrology that’s active behind the scenes doesn’t favor long-term resolutions right now. Even so, this is a critical situation to keep an eye on, since it could establish a precedent that allows governments around the world to confiscate wealth from depositors’ bank accounts, undoing 80 years’ worth of formal and informal banking policies that protect deposits in times of financial crisis.
It’s also important to realize that this is not a short-term crisis that we’ve encountered here; it’s implications are likely to play out for the next several years at least.
Here’s a video that provides some additional background and reveals the most critical dates to watch over the next 18 months: