Tag Archives: VIX

Mercury & Pluto at the Fed Announcement: Big Action for Stocks, the VIX, and the Dollar, Too!

In spite of the fact that one of our readers has dubbed the comments posted here on the Fed’s announcement today “the worst call out there”, it’s still interesting to see exactly what the markets actually did in the final hours of trading today– and to anticipate what the action in equities will look like tomorrow.

Throughout most of the trading day prior to the 2:00 p.m. announcement, stock prices were churning in a somewhat apprehensive market with a decidedly bearish bias.

But when the Fed announcement was released, it immediately became apparent that Mercury’s conjunction with the Fed Pluto was having exactly the kind of dramatic impact we had anticipated. The major market indices all rallied, breaking into positive territory and pushing to new heights by the end of the trading session.

Fed Indices Response
The S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ Composite all rose after the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee made its announcement on June 18, 2014.

The S&P not only rallied, it also managed to hit yet another all-time record high by the time the closing bell on Wall Street rang. Note as well that both Gold and the Euro showed significant strength for the day.

It was also worth watching the VIX during the trading session. This measure of market volatility took a sharp plunge right after the Fed’s announcement, confirming the old “buy the rumor, sell the fact” adage– once the facts were known about the Fed’s intentions, a lot of the uncertainty that had roiled the market action earlier in the day began to fade away.

Fed Announcement VIX Response
The VIX reaction to the Fed’s announcement was quite dramatic.

In looking at the VIX chart, it’s worth observing that the index had already risen to the higher levels we had forecast last week as a potential response to Mercury’s retrograde passage over the cardinal axis. We’re still looking for more action in this Fear Index during the coming weeks, with a return to higher levels of volatility as we approach the July 4 Independence Day holiday.

This dramatic action in the VIX was further confirmation of the power of the Mercury/Pluto combination that made the timing for this event so noteworthy.

But even though the Mercury/Pluto action bore out the forecast, I had also looked at the Mars transit to the Fed chart and had assumed that the market’s reaction to the announcement would be “less than enthusiastic,” based largely on the activation of the Moon/Saturn midpoint in the Fed horoscope.

Things didn’t turn out that way.

We certainly didn’t see a negative reaction in equities during the remainder of the trading day. But Mars moves more slowly than Mercury, so the impact of its transit is likely to carry on a little longer. That’s one of the reasons why we’re still anticipating a pull-back in stock prices before the end of the week– and why our Gold-Plus Elite members at FinancialCyclesWeekly.com are planning to add to the short positions in our Model Portfolio before the market closes on Friday..

Remember, too, that the influence of the Federal Reserve goes far beyond just the price of stocks. The Fed’s announcements have a big impact on currencies, of course, which is why it was particularly interesting to see what happened to the dollar this afternoon:

Dollar Reacts to Fed
The U.S. Dollar Index had been trending lower before the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday afternoon, but as soon as the official word was released the Greenback started going through wild swings. Volatility remained high for the rest of the day, with the dollar pushing sharply lower.

 

Unanswered Questions as the Planets Impact Stock Market Trading Movements

Wow!

I always enjoy the opportunity to chat with Michael Yorba when he invites me to be a guest on his Traders Network radio show– we discuss the upcoming prospects for stock market trading, and he does a really great job of asking questions that bring the planetary connections with market movements into an understandable perspective.

But during our time on the air together just before the closing bell on Wall Street yesterday, the conversation was not only lively– it took us into a lot of interrelated topics that ultimately provided a great overview of the big-picture situation in the markets today.

As Michael put it during the interview, “A lot of people are yawning at the markets now, but I’m not so sure that this is one of those yawning moments. It could be the start of something big.”

We touched on the impact of Mercury and Neptune on current conditions in stock market trading, on crude oil and precious metals, on the geopolitical troubles that have been brewing (and which have been described so incisively by our friend and colleague Jim Cummins in his articles for FinancialCyclesWeekly.com), on the prospects for increasing market volatility as we look at the VIX during the coming weeks, and a whole lot more.

In fact, we actually ran out of time during the interview, and Michael had to sign off with an unanswered question still dangling– about today’s potent combination of Friday the 13th and the Full Moon.

I’ll be putting up a new blog post on that subject within the next couple of hours, so be sure to check back then (or Subscribe To This Blog to get email notifications whenever a new post is added).

In the meantime, here’s the recording of yesterday’s interview on the Traders Network show:

click here to download or listen on your mobile device

Mercury & Volatility in Stock Market Trading – Watching the VIX

The CBOE VIX index is a popular gauge of market volatility.

The higher the number is, the greater amount of perceived uncertainty there is in the market action, and the greater the likelihood of big price swings for active players to take advantage of in stock market trading.

When the VIX is high, there’s plenty of fast money to be made by agile traders who are savvy to the psychology of rapid market swings.

But right now the VIX is catatonic.

It’s not at its worst level ever, but it’s still so low that it shows a high level of complacency (dare we say “boredom”?) in the equities markets.

But all that may change starting next week, when retrograde Mercury crosses the cardinal zodiac point at 0 Cancer on Tuesday, June 17.

This is only the 14th time in the last 30 years that we’ve had such a Cardinal-point passage by retrograde Mercury. The last three times it’s happened, in 2009, 2010, and 2012, the VIX went up by an average of 12.5% in the two weeks following the event.

But there are times when this kind of alignment is bearish instead of bullish.

The difference seems to be in the degree to which retrograde Mercury triggers other planetary midpoints as it crosses a cardinal point in the zodiac– if there are a lot of midpoint triggers, the VIX declines for the next couple of weeks, but if there are just one or two active midpoints (or none at all), then the VIX tends to rise.

For example, the Mercury retrograde passage over the 0 degree Cancer point in 1994 triggered a lot of planetary midpoints:

Mercury retrograde 1994 dial
The Mercury retrograde cardinal passage at 0 degrees Cancer in 1994 was extremely active in triggering planetary midpoint structures.

The result in the VIX during the two weeks following this event was quite dramatic:

Mercury retrograde with VIX in 1994
The VIX dropped after the retrograde passage of Mercury over the 0-degree Cancer cardinal point in 1994.

In 2012, however, the Mercury passage in retrograde motion over the cardinal axis didn’t have the same kind of effect on the midpoints of other planets:

Mercury retrograde 2012 dial
The Mercury retrograde passage over the cardinal point in 2012 failed to activate other planetary midpoint structures.

The corresponding impact on the VIX was just the opposite of what we saw in 1994, with the index rising in the weeks after the Mercury passage:

Mercury retrograde VIX 2012
The Mercury retrograde passage over the cardinal point at 0 degrees Aries in 2012 sent the VIX higher.

As we consider the Mercury retrograde activation of the cardinal axis coming up next week, we once again see a chart with minimal impact on planetary midpoints:

Mercury retrograde 2014 dial
The Mercury retrograde cardinal passage on June 17, 2014 has a minimal midpoint influence.

Based on the correspondences we’ve seen in our study of this phenomenon during the past 30 years, we’re thus looking for an increase in market volatility– and a corresponding increase in the VIX– as we finish up June and move into July:

Mercury retrograde VIX 2014
Based on our analysis of previous Mercury actions and the VIX, we’re looking for a modest increase in market volatility following the June 17, 2014 passage of retrograde Mercury over the 0 Cancer cardinal point.

For more details on the impact of Mercury on stock market trading, be sure to see the book Mercury, Money and the Markets. It’s available from Amazon.com or direct from the publisher at http://bit.ly/MercuryBook

“You’re Darn, Darn Good at What You Do!”

Market timing.

Cycle analysis.

A trading edge that really works.

That’s what makes the astro-trading advantage so remarkable, and it’s the reason that Michael Yorba keeps inviting me back as a special guest on his Traders Network radio program.

When we got together on the air on Friday we talked about the accuracy of the astro-trading forecasts we’ve shared in previous weeks, and discussed the upcoming prospects for the markets.

Good At Market Timing

“You’re here,” Michael told me, “because you’re darn, darn good at what you do!”

For example, this chart compares what I forecast for the VIX to the way the action actually turned out as the trading week got underway:

An Accurate VIX Forecast
Based on our research into the effects of the Jupiter/Uranus waxing square that’s discussed in the report on The Stock Market Collision Course, we forecast (in the chart on the left) a spike in the VIX just after the trading week got underway. The chart on the right shows how the action in the VIX actually turned out.

You can listen to the entire 10-minute interview here:


click here to download or listen on your mobile device

By the way, the new report on The Stock Market Collision Course features many of the planetary dynamics relevant to market timing that we discussed in the interview. You can get a copy now at http://bit.ly/ATsmcc

A Chat with Yorba about the Market’s Collision Course

I had a great time chatting with Michael Yorba on his Traders Network radio show yesterday afternoon just before the closing bell.

During our interview, he wanted to know about the string of astrological dynamics that are set to slam the markets during the coming weeks, with a special push toward a potential trend reversal as we finish up February and move into March, with Mercury retrograde ending and Mars retrograde getting started.

It was an especially appropriate topic, since the S&P 500 closed yesterday at 1854.29, a new all-time record high for that index, dramatically setting the stage for a trading top as the aggressive planetary factors come into play.

Jupiter-Uranus Waxing Square impact on S&P-500, NASDAQ, Dow Industrials and VIX

I also posted this collection of charts on Yorba’s social media page, illustrating the effects of the Jupiter/Uranus waxing square on the S&P 500, the NASDAQ Composite, the Dow Industrials, and the VIX. On each chart, the center vertical zero point is the exact date of the Jupiter/Uranus aspect, with the graph showing the average percentage of price movement for 30 days before and 30 days after the date of the planetary alignment.

By the way, the webinar I mentioned during the interview is now available as a recorded online video to view at your convenience — I got it posted on this blog last night, so you can see it right away at http://wp.me/p1VnSz-ky

You can listen to the full 10-minute interview with Michael Yorba from yesterday’s show on the Traders Network right here:

click here to download or listen on your mobile device

You’ll also want to check out the new report on The Stock Market Collision Course — it provides detailed information about the historical impact of the cycle of Jupiter/Uranus waxing squares, and also features 50 horoscopes and trading charts as well as a detailed listing of the key planetary dynamics that we expect to move the markets in the immediate future. You can download a copy at http://bit.ly/ATsmcc or just CLICK HERE.